🇲🇲 Attention turns to the Shan State frontlines

Hello friends!

A look at Myanmar today and as the story gets bigger and bigger, the reporting just gets better and better. An absolute feat from Myanmar Now, especially. 

There’s a lot to be read and everything is fantastic so I definitely recommend clicking through on all links here this week.

Catch up on earlier news and further background with last week’s Myanmar newsletter here.

Let’s crack in.

In Shan State, things are changing

What started as a “family matter” is now a full-fledged “invasion,” says the junta of clashes in Shan State. This outstanding piece from Myanmar Now looks at Shan and how rhetoric has changed as the 1027 offensive claims more gains. ​​Military council spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun dismissed movements in early November but with the Brotherhood Alliance gaining over 100 strategic sites, including military bases, he upped the rhetoric over the weekend. 

It’s not about whatever the Brotherhood says it’s about, the military says. “They’re now occupying Shan people’s homes and properties. They’re attacking military bases from there. We have also seen the Shan people begin to speak out about the silence on these matters from the organisations representing them in Shan State,” Zaw Min Tun told a state-run outlet, as quoted by Myanmar Now. 

As always, it’s not simple. The junta absolutely cannot be trusted, but Myanmar Now traces links and animosity between the various armed groups and political organisations operating in the area. The powerful Shan State Progressive Party/Shan State Army alliance has vowed to stay out of the current flare-up and called for both sides to protect lives in local communities. 

On luck and lawlessness in Laukkaing

The city of Laukkaing, Shan State, has been a major locale as we follow this along but I have been a little puzzled by reporting on the casinos and scam compounds that make the city so crucial to 1027’s push. I think there’s a lot of assumed knowledge for us outsiders, probably because it has, so far, seemed quite niche to the broader conflict since the coup. 

And so I think we’re very lucky Jonathan Head at BBC has gone deep today on what it all means. And good Lord, we had no chance of piecing this together from wire stories. It begins as a fairly common story in this part of the world. China’s government hates gambling, but demand is still high presenting a huge opportunity for neighbouring countries. In Laukkaing, the casinos “evolved into a lucrative front for money laundering, trafficking and in particular for dozens of scam centres,” Head writes. 

These enormous compounds are run, largely, by four Chinese crime families and while the Chinese government is eager to stamp out these practices and has issued warrants there may be a degree of protection afforded by the junta: “The four families owed their control of Laukkaing to none other than Min Aung Hlaing, the military commander who led the 2021 coup and still heads the junta.” Min Aung Hlaing had been deeply, and dodgily, involved in military operations in the area back in 2009. 

The local resistance group Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army — one major flank of the Brotherhood Alliance — has won control of much of the city and has pointed to the compounds specifically as targets. Still, it’s tricky. “But, given the history of serpentine shifts of loyalty in this lawless region, the MNDAA's stated aims must be viewed with caution,” Head notes. 

You’ve got to read this whole thing. It’s incredible. And once you’re done with it, join me over at Myanmar Now where another piece is running today.

Thuta Zaw takes a look at the efforts of Thailand and Vietnam to repatriate nationals trapped in the town as it really escalates. It is also a fantastic explainer of how the city came to be what it is, including the fascinating connections that exist across the border on ethnic, cultural and familial lines. Laukkaing is the centre hub of the Kokang Special Economic Zone and that makes the area very, very different to the rest of Myanmar: “The Kokang people — and over 90 percent of the population of Laukkai — have predominantly Chinese ancestry and speak Mandarin. It is commonplace to refer to the Kokang people as ‘the Kokang Chinese.’”

The India border settles down

Last week, we learnt that thousands of locals from Chin State had fled across the western border to India to avoid conflict there. James Lalrinchhana, the Deputy Commissioner of Champhai district in Mizoram, spoke openly with media and it seemed that his district was in a wait-and-see mode. A week on, more than half of the 5,000 Chin residents have returned home. 

“Since Wednesday, we have not heard sounds of airstrikes or gunfire across the border. We presume the situation across Mizoram border in Myanmar is returning to normal, leading to most of the 5,000 refugees returning back,” Lalrinchhana told the Associated Press this week. 

Interestingly, the AP reports that military personnel also sought refuge in India. On Monday, around 40 men from the army crossed over to India before the Air Force there airlifted them to Manipur and they returned to Myanmar. Curious! 

“Forces like the CNF [Chin National Front] were obviously monitoring the situation in the northern Shan state bordering China where the rebels were attacking the government soldiers. Rebels in the western Chin state, bordering India, also intensified their offensive,” Arunav Goswami, a researcher with the Guwahati-based Centre for Development and Peace Studies, told the wire. 

All roads lead to Naypyitaw

The conflict was initially largely in the north before it began spreading east and west along the borders. Now, Irrawaddy reports, the junta is worried about Naypyitaw. The capital is a world away from Operation 1027 but that world is expanding quickly. Around 14,000 troops are being prepared to mobilise to the city, the Irrawaddy reports. Locals told the outlet that there’s an uptick in household registration inspections and some other, less subtle, signs.

“The roofs of the commandos’ new barracks are being reinforced with steel H beams to resist drone attacks. They [the junta] are also building 70 new barracks [in Naypyitaw],” former soldier U Lwin told Irrawaddy. Other unidentified sources said police stations across the city were being similarly reinforced. 

U Lwin has no love lost for the military and he’s blunt about what could happen next. “The junta has already trussed them up like the chickens in a basket by putting their families close beside them. If the Northern Alliance offensive reaches Naypyitaw, the junta will sacrifice these troops on the front line to protect themselves,” he said. 

Is it about to crash down for the junta?

No, but maybe there’s more reason for hope lately, seems to be the answer. The successes of the operation are deeply embarrassing for the junta and underscore just how little real control the military has over the country. But, military losses do not mean a return to relative peace and democracy. In an analysis for Reuters, Martin Petty writes: “With its reputation at stake, the junta is unlikely to concede easily and risk a domino effect of challenges to its authority in more regions of a country where its rule is deeply unpopular.” 

Agreed. If anything, I think we’re in for a very scary few months. “The military has superior firepower and resources, including air assets and artillery, and may try to mount a decisive response to crush the rebellion,” Petty adds.