Asean is over for another year!

Hello friends!

Was Asean actually kinda interesting? Weird! Thailand has formally handed the reins off to next year’s chair, Vietnam and we’re done-ish for the rest of the year.  

(photo via Asean on Twitter)

This is the stuff that really stood out to me for one reason or another. 

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See you Friday!Erin Cook

(photo via Jokowi on Twitter)

I can’t speak for the rest of Asean, but isn’t it nice to see Indonesia so chummy again with FIFA! When I arrived it was peak-PSSI vs. FIFA (and soon to be PSSI vs. everyone) days and it all went over my head. I’m from a place with two codes (three, briefly, in Canberra during the Gregan days) and soccer was not and never has been on my radar. A Memorandum of Understanding signed between the bloc and the world soccer body, however, has me very keen to learn more. 

This MoU will see FIFA team up with Asean governments to introduce schools programs in an effort to increase physical education across the region. It’s not all just goodwill though. The Asean market is huge and ever-growing but Asean business still tends to look towards Western teams for investment, most famously with Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, the late owner of Leicester City, and most infamously with the Bakrie Group in Brisbane. It’s time to look inwards, FIFA president Gianni Infantino says. "People in your countries, businesses in your countries invest 10 times more in European football than in football in Asean. We need to invest in Asean."

"Football, and sports in general, is a strategic means for bringing people together, promoting greater people-to-people connectivity, and binding us stronger as one community,'' Asean secretary-general Lim Jock Hoi added. This came to a fore in Jakarta during September’s 2022 World Cup qualifying match where Team Indonesia fans turned on Malaysia supporters after losing 3-2. As an aside, Indonesia’s then sports minister Imam Nahrawi issued the best we’re sorry-not sorry-still sorry apology: “Requesting and accepting an apology is the best gesture, as what we’ve done before over an incident involving an Indonesian flag that was upside-down during 2017 SEA [Southeast Asian] Games in Kuala Lumpur. We hope it was the last incident to ever happen in soccer and that it will be a lesson to learn for all.”

All leaders were given numbered jerseys at the event that I was probably more complicated than it needed to be, to be honest. Heads of state, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Brunei’s Hassanal Bolkiah, were given 10, heads of government were given the number 9 and Indonesia’s President Jokowi was given 21 in honour of hosting the 2021 Under-20 World Cup. The annoying numbering has gotten more copy written than the dang MoU itself! 

The Code of Conduct on South China Sea. So, where are we? Beijing’s divide and conquer strategy has been chugging along just fine but China is now aiming for a 2022 deadline. The Chairman statement hasn’t said anything particularly new or interesting but did agree to the terms. "We welcomed the aspiration to conclude the COC within a 3-year timeline as proposed by China or earlier," it said. 

Personally, I’ll be keeping an eye on what this means for the Philippines’ delegation which has, of course, changed its tune under Duterte. With the next election due for May 2022 and the potential for a less, hmm, acquiescent president and foreign minister, resistance could reemerge. Duterte, whose comments to the summit had been anticipated after failing to comment on the dispute recently, noted that UNCLOS still rules ok but followed it up with the kind of softness he reserves only for Beijing. “Asean must, therefore, remain united … And we must use all the influence that we have, individually and collectively, to persuade parties to exercise self-restraint and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation,” he told the summit.  

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad isn’t looking for a fight. “We pointed out that we are a small country. Can’t confront China. If they want to claim the South China Sea as theirs, that’s their concern. As far as we are concerned, we want to have free passage through the South China Sea and also in the air,” he told a presser back in KL. It’s a bit of a bummer, from my perspective. He came back in ready to get into it, but this year has been very much sit back and watch. 

Vietnam has really been in it recently and I am looking forward to more analysis from that perspective in the coming days. As Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan noted in the Diplomat over the weekend, Vietnam is turning away from Asean and bilaterals within the region for support. ‘Vietnam has appeared to be pursuing multiple tracks to address the issues confronting its sovereignty. In the absence of concrete support to Vietnam from within the region and beyond, Vietnam is pursuing diplomatic tracks along with tough posturing.’

Still, remarks made by the US delegation may have buoyed hopes from Vietnam. The US rocked up swinging, with National security adviser Robert O’Brien leading the charge. “Beijing has used intimidation to try to stop Asean nations from exploiting the offshore resources, blocking access to $2.5tn of oil and gas reserves alone. The region has no interest in a new imperial era where a big country can rule others on a theory that might makes right,” he said in a speech proving Americans don’t understand irony. 

But, we’ll get into it further next week! 

The Americans’ aren’t happy. Just three leaders showed up to Monday’s US-Asean meet — and even then it only seems like the few who needed to. Just Thai Prime Minister/this year’s host Prayuth Chan-o-cha, Vietnamese Prime Minister and next year’s host Nguyen Xuan Phuc and Laos’ Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith (I don’t know why he went, tbh) rocked up with the other seven delegations sending foreign ministers in their place. So what, I say! President Trump couldn’t be arsed flying out to Bangkok and instead sent national security advisor Robert O’Brien and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (sorry, siapa? That sounds like a fake name!). It has been read in some corners as a ‘boycott’ but I think a ‘dogged’ would be more accurate. "It's not appropriate for Asean to send leaders when the US representation is not on parity," a diplomat told AFP. Fair cop.  

O’Brien read a letter on behalf of Trump inviting the leaders to the US early next year for a summit, saying it would be ‘“an excellent opportunity" for leaders to "broaden and deepen our cooperation on matters of great importance,”’ according to AFP. So would have been Bangkok, or Singapore the year before when Vice President Mike Pence came instead. 

Now, I can’t tell if I’m particularly sour about this because I a) love Asean and b) hate Trump. But everybody else made the big show…

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in met on the sidelines for exactly 11 minutes for a talk which is probably the most meaningful engagement for either country throughout the summit. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was typically embarrassing. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the usual South China Sea safety and stability stuff.  

It’s a no-brainer that this is never the forum in which to address the on-going Rohingya crisis, but still, there has been some slight movement. An ‘ad hoc task force’ will be established to monitor repatriation of refugees from Bangladesh. Of course, watchers know few, if any, Rohingya refugees feel safe to return and any move by Asean would have to have the support of the Myanmar government. Dhaka sent a delegation to Bangkok, as it did Singapore last year, in an effort to rally more movement from Asean.

(photo via Modi on Twitter)

RCEP, baby! Usually, I think RCEP is very boring and I’m never one for trade partnership chatter anyways but this is important now. A lot of my understanding comes from the brilliant Scroll.in site (sign up the Daily Fix email, it’s the best way to stay on top of India and the Sub-Continent imo) who ran this great explainer Monday. The partnership would include the 10 members of Asean as well as China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. But, as the explainer foretold, India isn’t going along with it. 

Under immense domestic pressure from industry and labour groups that fear the destruction of local markets with the introduction of cheaper Chinese goods, Modi pulled the plug.

"Today, when we look around we see during seven years of RCEP negotiations, many things, including the global economic and trade scenarios have changed. We cannot overlook these changes. The present form of the RCEP Agreement does not fully reflect the basic spirt and the agreed guiding principles of RCEP. It also does not address satisfactorily India's outstanding issues and concerns In such a situation, it is not possible for India to join RCEP Agreement," he said, as reported by India Today.

While both the government and opposition are claiming it as a win (and their win, specifically) that celebration could be short-lived. James Crabtree for Nikkei Asia argues that the remaining members of the RCEP will be upset but in the long run it will be India which loses out. 

Everyone else is expected to sign on next year.