🇲🇲 As third anniversary approaches, no answers in sight

Hello friends,

Thursday marks three years since the military junta seized power in Myanmar and the country appears to be, somehow, at both a stalemate and a moment of profound change. Oh God, is this the crossroads?

We’ve missed a bit over the last few weeks with my COVID brain so here’s what I’ve been reading to catch up. I expect we should have a lot more to read at the end of the week as anniversary pieces come out, so shall be back in the inboxes then. 

As always, Myanmar coverage will remain free to all readers for however long it takes. But if you would like to support that please consider doing so with a premium subscription here:

There’s been some remarkable work in recent weeks so let’s crack in.

Erin Cook

Can China use a ceasefire to bolster influence and bring stability? Ahhh, probably not.

The Myanmar military and the armed ethnic groups that make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance — that is, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army — hatched a temporary ceasefire on Jan. 12. It was brokered by Chinese representatives in Kunming, along the border with Myanmar, Associated Press reported. “We will continue discussions We will continue to work for the strengthening of the cease-fire,” Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, the military council spokesman, told journalists in a voice note. 

So that’s more or less two weeks ago. How’s it going? About as well as everyone expected. "I think the current truce won't mark the end of the war between the alliance and junta forces. However, the war might cease in the Kokang area for a while. Before the current truce between the alliance and junta forces, they had at least two meetings brokered by China, but no results were achieved. The alliance continued fighting until it achieved its military objectives, especially a full seizure of Laukkai,” Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, an analyst in Myanmar, told DW.

His comments come after reports from the Brotherhood Alliance in Kachin that the military had never really stuck to it to begin with. In a statement, the Alliance alleged military forces fired on the Alliance who were compelled to fire back. Also speaking with DW, analyst David Scott Mathieson said a cease-fire isn’t the end and probably won’t have too much of an influence on what the Brotherhood is planning next: “I think it's impossible to predict where the conflict is going, although it is worth considering that any change in momentum by the [Three Brotherhood Alliance] will be determined by their multiple strategies, not through outside pressure.”

Very intriguing piece here from Ivan U. Klyszcz and Harold Chambers in the Diplomat over the weekend. The pair take a look at the military’s ever-diminishing international support and the tricky relationship it has with regional powers. Russia had been a friend, but Moscow’s kinda busy with its own messes now, and it’s China whose change of heart has been more substantial. 

“For China, the junta is a liability, unable to control their shared border and unwilling to crack down on crime. While a pro-democracy government is far from Beijing’s ideal in the global ideological balance, it is preferable to what would be a permanent state of instability under the junta. Beijing will also remember that the previous government under Aung San Suu Kyi was quite amenable to friendly ties with China,” they write.

Tharaphi Than of Northern Illinois University has also been thinking about the China relationship. Writing for the Conversation, she is quick to note that this ceasefire only applies to Shan State and has done nothing to even slow down the conflict elsewhere. This is “uncharted territory” for China, which finds its influence in Myanmar — both with the military and the ethnic armed groups — waning as violence and crime explode along the border. “Chinese efforts to end the fighting do little to provide solutions to tie the disparate ethnic groups in Myanmar together,” Tharaphi Tran writes.

So, where does it go from here? Avinash Paliwal of SOAS has an interesting piece in Foreign Affairs that reassesses the previously held common wisdom that the opposition forces across the country were too fractured to mount a genuine challenge to the junta. As Paliwal notes, that has changed dramatically since October and now the junta is struggling: “Even after a cease-fire agreement was signed in January 2024, the junta continued to breach it, according to the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. Such collective punishment, though par for the course for the junta, continues to cement Naypyidaw’s territorial and political losses. Morale in the army appears low, and, unsurprisingly, the violence has triggered a fierce debate among Myanmar watchers about the country’s future.”

But, Paliwal writes, even if the junta does fail — the collapse of Myanmar as a union is something that must be considered. This debate is best left to the experts (and not the newsletter-writing dilettantes) but reading this in full will do anyone well. 

Losing friends fast

“Min Aung Hlaing is not coping. He should move to a civilian role.” That’s the message from Pauk Ko Taw, one of Myanmar’s notorious ultra-nationalist Buddhist monks in this report from the BBC. This sort of criticism against the junta leader is hardly uncommon, but as Jonathan Head writes, it rarely comes from this segment of society. The monk made the comments at an address in Pyin Oo Lwin, a former colonial hill station turned Defence Services Academy for officers, this shows us he’s sending a message. And that’s: Min Aung Hlaing is running out of friends, Head writes. 

The piece also has a longer exploration of the relationship between the Buddhist clergy and the military which is super interesting. Click through! 

A disaster for the Rohingya community

Last year was a horror year for the Rohingya community. New data from UNHCR shows 569 Rohingya died or went missing at sea. It’s the highest figure since 2014, Al Jazeera reports. Almost 4,500 of the mostly Muslim minority group took to boats across the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal to escape both Myanmar and the refugee camps of Cox’s Bazaar in Bangladesh. 

“Estimates show one Rohingya was reported to have died or gone missing for every eight people attempting the journey in 2023. This makes the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal one of the deadliest stretches of water in the world,” UNHCR spokesperson Matthew Saltmarsh said in a statement as reported by AJ. 

The US’ ABC spoke with Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh about life in the camps. Shahed, a resident of the camps, told the outlet that with no jobs and criminal outfits making life even more difficult he feels he has no option but to attempt to reach Malaysia via people smugglers. “I have not told anyone about my journey. But now, I think I must tell at least someone because I’m scared,” he said. 

In Myanmar, journalism is a jail sentence

Kaung Sett Lin is one of Myanmar’s quiet heroes. The 30-year-old journalist was freed from Isein Prison as part of an amnesty on Jan. 4 to mark the country’s Independence Day. That time isn’t coming back. “I just want my mother back. My mother passed away eight months ago while I was in prison. She died at the age of 48 from cancer. The last time I saw her, or the rest of my family, was when I appeared in court for sentencing in December of 2022,” he told Voice of America. 

He was arrested along with colleague and friend Hmu Yadanar Khet Moh Moh Tun back in Dec. 2021 at a protest in Yangon. Both were injured during their arrests and Kaung Sett Lin reports they both were forced to deal with their injuries in prison. But nothing will stop him: “We hope [the] international community recognizes that we have been able to obtain the right information, and to get it out to the world. No matter what kind of oppression or violence we face under the military coup, we, as journalists, will continue to do our job.” Fantastic piece. 

War from above in Chin

Excellent reporting here from the Guardian on the frontlines with the Chin National Army, an armed ethnic organisation in, you guessed it, Chin State where drones have been deployed. “We had precise hits,” 20-year-old drone operator Noah says of an attack on military forces. The military has lost control of around 50% of the country, but in Chin they’ve lost 70% and CNA says that’s due in part to their drone warfare. 

Drones, imported from China and Western countries like the US, have been a game changer over the last three years. “The use of drones has created a tectonic shift in Myanmar’s battlefield. They have not completely closed the tactical asymmetry between the military and resistance forces, but have diminished it significantly,” Angshuman Choudhury, an associate fellow at Delhi-based thinktank Centre for Policy Research, told the paper. 

Drones have created a “sense of fear among the junta rank-and-file that they are being watched discreetly and could be attacked from the air anytime, anywhere — something that was absolutely unthinkable before the coup,” he added.

Still in Chin, the Myanmar Witness project of the United Kingdom-based Centre for Information Resilience investigated claims the military was targeting churches in air strikes across the state and the findings are scary. Religious buildings have special protection under international law, the Associated Press noted. At least 107 buildings have been destroyed, which includes 67 churches and five Buddhist monasteries. “By targeting churches and other places of worship, they are striking directly at the identity of these communities,” Benedict Rogers, formerly of Christian Solidarity Worldwide and a longtime Myanmar watcher, told the AP.  

House arrest villa on the market

A court has ordered the house Aung San Suu Kyi spent 15 years in under her house arrest be put on the market. Bids will start at $90 million, Reuters reports. ASSK’s estranged brother, ​​Aung San Oo, will split the winnings of the Yangon villa which is still registered to their mother.