🇹🇭 Are you ready for the Thaksin plot twist?

Hello friends!

Today we’ve got a big one in Thailand, a bigger-than-usual one in Cambodia, almost nothing in Vietnam and not a whisper from Laos. I would certainly love to bring you more from across the Mekong region, but I’m quietly grateful because there are a lot of excellent reports from Thailand to get through.

I was planning a Myanmar update on Friday but there has been a lot of necessary horrible news and updates, so I’ll be in your inbox with that tomorrow instead.

See you then,

Erin Cook

🇹🇭 Thaksin Shinawatra is a free man

He is outta there — at least for now. Thaksin Shinawatra, the billionaire former prime minister of Thailand who was ousted in the 2006 coup, returned from self-imposed exile last August following the change in government and went straight into the slammer. For about five minutes, after which he was transferred to a Bangkok hospital with health concerns. 

“Mission accomplished,” Thaksin supporter Peemai Sirikul told Al Jazeera while waiting for him at his home in Bangkok. “He shouldn’t have been punished as he did nothing wrong — it’s because of the coup d’état,” she said. Not everyone feels the same: “Against the politics of Thailand and every law, we say he should go to the right jail. We are asking for real justice from the government. Thaksin did some wrong things, so how does he have the right to be very comfortable and not go to jail?” Pichit Chaimongkol, the leader of the Students and Peoples Network for Thailand Reform, said. 

Move Forward is also a bit suspicious. What happened in 2006 was definitely garbage, the opposition party acknowledged, but there are some serious questions to be answered about what, if any, deal was brokered to get Thaksin free, the party said in a statement as reported by the Associated Press.

And then there’s the question of what he plans to get up to. “Thaksin is still believed to wield huge influence, and will still maneuver for sure, he will conduct the music behind the scenes,” Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, told the AP. But it’s not the 2000s and “Pheu Thai has less power than they used to,” Pongsudhirak noted. This may feel counter-intuitive given that Pheu Thai is the government, but keep in mind that’s only after the nonsense of last year and the erosion in support both before the election and since. 

Still, expect Thaksin to hold on to what he can. “The real power is in his hands. He is going to be the one who controls how the Cabinet will look,” Mahidol University political scientist Punchada Sirivunnabood told the Straits Times. Titipol Phakdeewanich at Ubon Ratchathani University suggests it would be “impossible” for Thaksin to ever really Thai politics: “Thaksin was allowed back because he is perceived as the hope for the conservative establishment that is contending with the liberal forces in Thailand.” Juicy! There’s one thing Titipol noted at the end. “Whether he can bring Yingluck back will depend on his performance.” 

“Can we move on now?” asks Arun Saronchai in the Thai Enquirer. “Focusing indefinitely on Thaksin’s legal troubles and political machinations risks overshadowing more pressing concerns. Thailand stands at a critical juncture, with urgent needs for governance reform, economic revitalization, and the healing of societal divisions,” they write.  

He is still under bail conditions, but nothing too intense due to his supposedly seriously ill health. The degree to which they banged it on yesterday about how sick he’s looking made me extra suspicious, I’ll be honest. Thaksin fronted up to authorities Monday to answer allegations of insulting the monarchy in an interview back in 2015. 

The Attorney-General’s Office says the accusations are still under investigation but the focus is very much on the former PM’s appearance. "I spoke to him and he barely had any voice. From what I can see he is truly ill. He had a neck brace and a sling on the arm, and he couldn't really walk,” Preecha Sudsanguan, director general of the office of litigation, told media yesterday, as reported by Reuters. 

🇰🇭 Hun Manet hits the road

Prime Minister Hun Manet sat down with his Thai counterpart Srettha Thavisin on a visit to Bangkok earlier in the month. Usually, I wouldn’t be too concerned with getting this older news in but it is an important update. Three Cambodian activists and their families were thrown into immigration detention in Thailand ahead of Hun Manet’s visit. Despite fears, Srettha did not order the group to be deported and Hun Manet thanked him for not interfering “in Cambodian internal politics,” Reuters reports. 

This is especially important given that Cambodia has just popped up on a list of the world’s top five “perpetrators of transnational repression” last year. That’s alongside Russia, Myanmar, Turkmenistan and China, American think tank Freedom House found in its analysis. Cambodia has been dinged with at least 15 cases of transnational repression, including assaults on four nationals in Thailand. 

Back in Bangkok, the pair also chatted collaborating on joint exploration for hydrocarbon resources while also nutting out the maritime borders, Nikkei Asia reported. “As Thailand and Cambodia import huge amounts of energy every year, we discussed and agreed to strengthen our cooperation in the field of energy security,” Srettha said, as per the outlet. 

“We agreed to discuss further on the joint exploration of the hydrocarbon resources in the overlapping claims area between the two countries. At the same time, we are trying to progress on the maritime delineation, and agreed to discuss the issue simultaneously with our exploitation of our resources,” he added. That’s a productive meeting. 

Uh, here is a weird and disturbing one. The worst of Cambodian scam compounds meeting the worst of influencer culture? Two Taiwanese men have been locked up for two years after a hideous ‘prank.’ One of the men live-streamed from Sihanoukville claiming to have broken into one of the compounds. I’m going to quote DW on length here because my jaw is on the floor: ‘In the video, it appears as if he is chased and beaten up by unseen attackers. The streamer's wife also posted a video of herself in tears over her husband's alleged disappearance. The second video posted by the Taiwanese influencer shows him claiming to have escaped. In this video, he shows injuries and describes being robbed, tied up, beaten and assaulted with a stun gun, CNA said.’

“Both men had entered Cambodia to produce slanderous videos related to human trafficking, detention with torture, rape and selling human organs,” a Cambodian court ruled. They’ll serve two years and both have been fined. 

🇻🇳 All aboard, Saigon!

The city has broken ground on its second metro line, reports Nikkei Asia. I know the metro is a favourite interest for over at Vietnam Weekly so infrastructure lovers are going to want to get on his list.