Another Asean done for the year

Good one for the haters and those who like to kick cans down roads

Hello friends!

Another year, another Asean summit. I’m frustrated about a few things and cautiously optimistic about others.

As always, thank you so much to premium readers who make it possible to send this out to the free list too. If you’d like to show your support and sign up, do so here:

Well done to Laos — Malaysia, you’re up next!

Let’s crack in,
Erin Cook

🇹🇱 Is it almost Timor’s time?

Is next year the year for Timor-Leste? That’s certainly the impression Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has given as Malaysia takes on chair. He met with Timor-Leste Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao on the sidelines in Vientiane on Wednesday, where he pledged support for getting Timor that long-awaited permanent seat at the table. 

“This brief yet meaningful encounter provided a platform to further strengthen bilateral ties between our two nations and to exchange views on various matters, including Timor-Leste’s bid for full Asean membership. Malaysia stands ready to support Timor-Leste’s application, particularly during Malaysia’s Asean chairmanship next year,” Anwar wrote in a post to Facebook, as reported by FMT here

Indonesia, which has long championed Timor-Leste’s ascent and was chair last year when the ‘road-map’ was decided upon, has reaffirmed its support, Antara News reports. “I believe it is time for Timor-Leste to participate in substantive discussions and the shaping of ASEAN priorities,” Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said in a written statement. 

🇲🇲 Optimism on Myanmar

Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan is hopeful. He says that a representative from Myanmar attending is a good sign: “Before this, they shut their doors. They did not want to negotiate and communicate at all. So, this is clear that they are opening their doors to negotiations and we want to take this opportunity to negotiate with various parties there,” he said last night in Vientiane as per the Star. He made it very clear that the junta are not the only party in Myanmar that will be consulted. 

His comments come after the bloc accepted Thailand’s idea, proposed by Foreign Ministry spokesman Nikorndej Balankura, of hosting peace talks in Bangkok in December. Movement on peace in Myanmar has been slow within Asean and it’s hoped dedicated talks will shove this along a little, with everyone involved: “But, what we [Asean] insisted on is that all solutions for Myanmar should be done via Myanmar-led progress, which means Myanmar should engage with all parties in the country and consult among themselves.” 

I don’t really know what to write here. It’s virtually the same thing we’ve talked about for years. I don’t have an answer on what Asean can do and it’s confronting to repeatedly see that Asean does not have an answer either. I haven’t found any follow-up to Jakarta’s quick meeting over last weekend with a whole range of punters, and the goss says everyone is staying very tight-lipped. Will follow all of this up next week once the analysts can crack in. 

The South China Sea shuffle

Philippine President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, who has spent much of the last year dealing with this, came to Vientiane swinging. 

“We call on all Asean member states not to turn a blind eye to the aggressive, coercive, and illegal actions of an external power against an Asean member state,” his prepared speech said, as reported by the Inquirer. “They run counter to one of Asean’s purposes: to unite the region as a bulwark against external threats and conflicts, and ensure that each Asean member state can lead its national existence free from interference, subversion, and coercion. Silence in the face of these violations diminishes Asean.” 

Marcos wants to get the show back on the road, one unidentified regional diplomat told Nikkei of the Asean-China summit. Premier Li Qiang represented China. While Marcos’ comments haven’t been reported yet, this diplomat said he “broke tradition by talking about maritime issues in this forum” and that Marcos wanted blunt and open talks. The diplomat added that the Philippines’ blunt words seemingly encouraged Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam to be more forthright than perhaps they would be otherwise in this specific summit. 

He’s not wrong, but who knows how influential it will be in the long run. Cambodia has long been the sinker of the South China Sea ship and I can’t imagine fighting words and pleading for decency are going to cut it with the Hun clan. 

For its part, the US is worried about China’s “increasingly dangerous and unlawful” actions, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said at a press conference in Vientiane today. “We are very concerned about China’s increasingly dangerous and unlawful activities in the South China Sea which have injured people, harm vessels from Asean nations and contradict commitments to peaceful resolutions of disputes. The United States will continue to support freedom of navigation, and freedom of overflight in the Indo Pacific,” he said, as per the AP

He was representing the US after President Joe Biden opted to skip for the third year running. A US president in October before an election, ho hum who cares. But remember that fuss when Trump didn’t show up in Bangkok! While I agree emphatically with Blinken’s comments above, it is hard to really understand how much the US cares when they can’t be bothered showing up. I’m very bored of it! Oh, Asean centrality, Indo-Pacific! As if! It’s been bilateral trade agreements and ‘come to DC if you want to talk’ the whole way down. 

Whatever, forget you America. It’s Japan I’m watching this week. 

🇯🇵 Whoops

Japan’s brand new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, made his diplomatic debut in Vientiane. Kyodo News has reported on his comments during the Asean+3 (China, South Korea and Japan) summit here, including the always important ‘deepening of ties’ in areas of mutual benefit. He noted Japan’s concern for “militarisation and coercive acts” in the South China Sea and reiterated the importance of keeping Taiwan safe for the good of the region. All fairly rote, I think. But it’s his security pact idea that has me curious. It seems to have been quietly shelved but not before undermining Ishiba’s nascent foreign policy credentials. 

I am puzzled — perplexed! — by this idea of an ‘Asian NATO.’ Who is it for? Who asked for this? Nikkei Asia reports that during last month’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership drama, Ishiba had pushed the idea, transparently seen as a counterweight to China. It would mess with Asean centrality, Nikkei notes, but I think it also fundamentally misunderstands Asean states and their relationship with China. Japanese investment is powering the region ahead — but so is Chinese cash. 

India, Japan’s partner in the Quad along with Australia and the US, is dismissive of the idea. “We have never been a treaty ally of any country. We don't have that kind of strategic architecture in mind,” External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar previously said. 

I am by no means a Japan nerd, but it does seem to me to be a plan that was received as entirely plausible back home and more for the domestic audience than a true proposal. Still, it strikes me as wildly naive and, judging by the tone in reporting and Ishiba’s own admission that he wouldn’t mention it at the summit, a misstep. I’m happy to point my finger at domestic politics destabilising Japanese foreign policy, but if you know better please get in touch.

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