🇲🇲 An ascendant Alliance and a desperate military

Hello friends!

Back again with an update on Myanmar. We seem to have entered a new phase of ‘wait and see,’ especially in Shan State where incremental gains by the Brotherhood Alliance have triggered a fresh wave of interest in Laukkai.  

Get up to date with our two previous Myanmar specials here and here. Would also highly recommend this one from Straits Times’ Tan Hui Yee which is a fantastic overview. 

See you next week!

Erin Cook

The Battle for Laukkai

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army isn’t too far off seizing control of Laukkai, the administrative centre of Kokang Self-Administered Zone that we talked about a bunch last Myanmar special. The MNDAA has made gains in the surrounding areas for weeks but the ultimate goal is to take on the town, which remains under the junta, Myanmar Now reports.

A final showdown in Laukkai has been flagged for weeks, so I’m not entirely confident. BUT I do think it’s become a crucial PR operation for both the Brotherhood Alliance and the junta. To lose Laukkai would be a strong signal that the military is losing control, obviously, but that it also may not be all that useful to China which is desperate to shut down the scam compounds. More below! 

China’s not impressed

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Myanmar junta counterpart Than Swe in Beijing Wednesday and used the opportunity to really drive home how much China hates these goddamned scam compounds. Let’s strengthen security cooperation and get rid of it once and for all, a joint statement said in not quite so many words. He also nodded at the conflict: “China hopes that Myanmar will achieve national reconciliation and continue its political transformation process under the constitutional framework as soon as possible,” Wang Yi said, as reported by Reuters.

The Associated Press reports this week that China has stepped up its efforts including televising the chaos. The wire succinctly notes what China is up against: “But the drive has been confined to a limited area and appears unlikely to root out the kingpins behind the human trafficking and other illicit activities aimed at cheating people of their savings via phone calls and online overtures, schemes that are thought to generate tens of billions of dollars in revenue a year.”

Still, China is seemingly “intent on cleaning its border,” American cyber scam industry expert Jason Tower told the AP. Not everyone is convinced. High-profile authorities in the Kokang believed to be linked to the industry are apparently untouchable and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army isn’t impressed. “Among these 31,000 people, there’s no heads of cyberscams. Before we even launched the operation, a Myanmar military helicopter lifted these people away,” MNDAA spokesperson Li Kyar Wen alleged. Oof. 

The Irrawaddy has another take. It’s been told by unidentified sources that the junta practically BEGGED China to broker peace talks with the Brotherhood Alliance. State-run media in Myanmar reported Wang Yi had vowed to respect the sovereignty of Myanmar and won’t get involved — the junta appears to have never considered that can go both ways. 

“What we see is cautious pragmatism determining China’s engagement with Myanmar,” Swaran Singh, an international relations professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, told the South China Morning Post of Beijing’s balance. The scam compounds trump all but fears of conflict spilling across the border are always at the back of everyone’s minds.  

Discontent in the barracks

Back in the barracks, military wives are feeling the pressure Lorcan Lovett reports for Nikkei Asia. “Defined by a hierarchy that mirrors their husbands' ranks in the notorious institution, the spouses whisper about desperate losses as their wartime duties expand to patrolling military compounds in the absence of soldiers and chanting Buddhist mantras believed to protect the troops of an army accused of countless atrocities,” Lovett writes. 

Speaking with two unidentified women, it’s clear that morale is through the floor among military families as Operation 1027 continues. “Soldiers' wives and adolescents are being pushed more to take on patrol duties … Military families are feeling more insecure. They don't trust each other and are afraid to ... die,” one woman, married to an army sergeant said. 

This is a very interesting perspective on the fractures appearing — or deepening — within the military in the last six weeks. The same woman said “about 90% of people from the army don't like Min Aung Hlaing” and noted that “no one cares” about the deaths of low-ranking soldiers. 

Meanwhile, some deserters and other convicted soldiers are being sent from the prisons back to the barracks as of Wednesday. It comes after the military changed its policy of allowing some locked-up soldiers back into the fold as the pressures of the resistance movement bite. Former military officers who have been banged up are excluded, an unidentified source told Myanmar Now. According to the outlet, it’s the first time in the military’s long history that deserters have openly been permitted to return, which certainly underscores the desperation, no? 

Arming the desperate

A stunning must-read from Frontier Myanmar this week on Pyusawhti, armed militias supporting the military but plagued with even worse pay and conditions than the bloody military itself. 

“Sometimes military officers came to give speeches during the training. I’d expected them to say we were there to protect the country, but instead they said it was to protect the Tatmadaw [military]. We must assist the military in fighting terrorism, of course, but I don’t believe PDFs [people’s defence forces] are terrorist organisations. Our leader made up stories about how cruel they are, killing people at random,” a 26-year-old former fighter who was forced by economic straits to join told Frontier. 

Frontier notes that the term Pyusawhti, named for a warrior-king who founded Bagan in the 9th century, was earlier used by a rural defence force under U Nu’s government in the 50s. Intriguing. Great piece, a must-read.