🇲🇲 A Year On (Part 2)

How the world marked one year of junta rule

February 09, 2022

Hello friends!

I thought last week, hmm, a bit soon, I might hold out for another week to see if there are any developments in the world responding to the Myanmar coup anniversary. And I’m glad I did because I found a brilliant podcast and Hun Sen did something very confusing this week. 

I’ll be back Friday for a look at everything that’s happened elsewhere in the region these last few days — so much dancing in the Filipino election! — so keep an eye out for that. 

Free subscriptions are available for any Asean or Timorese national under-30 (or Burmese national of any age). Everyone else can join us here: 

See you soon!Erin Cook

🇺🇳 United Nations’ not-so-united messaging

BBC’s Global News Podcast (which is a fantastic addition to your morning news rotation if you’ve had enough of Michael Barbaro’s smooth voice) marked the anniversary with a fantastic package from Rebecca Henschke. The whole thing is remarkable and, as I said on Twitter if you’re overwhelmed with news this is a brilliant, broad look, including lots of input from movements outside the cities. 

The part that really got me is her conversation with United Nations Human Rights Commissioner Michelle Bachelet. A year ago, the UN was a target for calls to intervene and stand up for democracy and the people of Myanmar. Not much came of that and it quickly turned to accusations from activists that the UN had effectively abandoned the country.

A year on, the question seems to be: is the UN doing anything material at all? Rebecca puts these questions to the commissioner who seems almost frustrated at the inaction of the international community, but also specifically China, India and Japan. I was very interested to hear Bachelet support the idea of recognising the National Unity Government as a way forward. Give it a listen! 

UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Noeleen Heyzer spoke with Channel News Asia’s May Wong shortly before the anniversary  

 

The priority here is to deescalate the violence in a negotiated arrangement between all stakeholders. While I appreciate Heyzer’s view that this is a deeply complicated situation that can’t be easily resolved, I think it seriously underestimates the fury of the people in Myanmar (and forgets the nature of the hybrid government prior to the coup). 

The comments angered civil society groups, as expected, who shot back with a statement suggesting it could be viewed as supporting the military, the Guardian reports. “These statements could set a dangerous precedent, that those who take control through brutal means – massacring, killing, raping, arresting, torturing, burning villages and people, targeting civilians using airstrikes and shelling – be welcomed to share power,” the statement said. The Guardian reported further clarification from the Special Envoy who said comments had been ‘misinterpreted’: “The special envoy has emphasised in no uncertain terms that any peace process has to be led by the people of Myanmar.”

I have no idea what the answer is here and I don’t envy those UN workers tasked with taking it on. 

🇰🇭 Hun Sen perplexes

Earlier this week Cambodian Prime Minister and current Asean chair Hun Sen clarified his motives and intentions when responding to the crisis, hitting back at criticisms from within Myanmar that he has been too involved with General Min Aung Hlaing.

“Can you overthrow the current ruler in Naypyidaw? How many soldiers do you have to fight the half a million soldiers in Myanmar with? If you want to wage war, perhaps I should let you … I have tried so hard! But I will not give up my efforts as chair of Asean this year. I will continue to call on the leaders of Myanmar to adopt the five-point consensus,” he said, as reported by the Phnom Penh Post. 

Okayyy. 

Myanmar is still formally barred from participating in Asean, a move supported by some of the bloc’s more ardent voices including Indonesia and Malaysia. Anyway, the Foreign Minister’s meeting this month, postponed from January, will surely be a juicy one with Malaysian FM Saifuddin Abdullah ready to go. 

Elsewhere, I thought this piece from Charles Dunst for CSIS was fantastically illuminating. I’m openly a Cambodia-dilettante (and avid Campuccino reader as a result) so Hun Sen’s motives, while at times awfully transparent, can be perplexing. This piece places the first six weeks of chairmanship into a historical context, particularly within Hun Sen’s ‘peacemaker’ self-image.

🇰🇭🇦🇺 Conflicting reports confuse

Closer to home, literally, is the case of Sean Turnell, the Australian academic turned NLD advisor who was arrested and has been imprisoned since early February on charges of violating secrecy laws. Marking the first anniversary of his arrest, colleagues and academics from across Australian universities have penned an open letter calling for his release, along side the concerted efforts of Australian diplomats. 

I was very moved by this report from the ABC on Ha Vu, Turnell’s Sydney-based economist wife. She hoped for a speedy trial and release, noting that the Tatmadaw would be well aware of Turnell’s immense contributions to the country. "It has been a year, and in our wildest dream or imagination, we never ever thought we would face this kind of challenge," Ha Vu told the ABC last week. 

It must have made the developments early this week particularly frustrating. Hun Sen told reporters Monday that Turnell had been released the previous day — but walked that back quick smart saying he had “received the wrong information,” as per the ABC.  

Andrew Nachemson summed it up perfectly, I think:

 Further reading:

Frontier Myanmar’s coverage in the last year has helped define the crisis to the world. The photogs of the team are exceptionally talented and this collection is best viewed on a giant monitor. 

ASEAN has sent some important signals. The decision to exclude Min Aung Hlaing from the ASEAN summit in October amounts to the most severe sanction the grouping has taken against Naypyidaw. It was likely motivated by the organisation’s interests to remain relevant in the regional diplomatic theatre. Allowing Myanmar to be represented in leaders’ meetings would only have further hampered the organisation’s legitimacy – beyond criticism that the emphasis on sovereignty undermined ASEAN’s credibility and standing as a regional bloc. As analysts have noted, the ASEAN Charter adopted in 2007 does not provide guidelines on how to respond to a coup in a member state that could result in regional instability.

But there seems little prospect of resolving the friction within the bloc about how to deal with the junta. Cambodia has taken over the ASEAN chair in 2022 under a rotating arrangement and Hun Sen’s decision to visit Naypyidaw could also be construed as the grouping legitimising the coup.

The omicron wave breaking over the region was cited as the reason for the abrupt decision to put off the meeting. But the conference could have been held online if that had been the issue. The real problem was Cambodia's decision to invite Wunna Maung Lwin, the Myanmar military-appointed foreign minister, to the meeting. That caused a backlash from other ASEAN members.

If Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen continues pushing to bring Myanmar back into the diplomatic fold without support from other ASEAN members, he could find himself isolated within the bloc and Cambodia might even be expelled from the group. Hun Sen, who has cast himself as the savior of ASEAN, is playing a dangerous game.

Following the coup, Thailand hosted early talks between Wunna Maung Lwin and ASEAN counterparts, but also has maintained personal relationships intertwining the Thai and Myanmar militaries despite persistent ethnic tensions.

While Myanmar has long been a foe of Thai nationalists for generations, their current relationship is decidedly warm.

Less than two weeks after seizing power, Aung Hlaing wrote a personal letter to Thai prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha asking him how to “support democracy.” Years earlier, the coup leader saw in Prayut a man he could imitate.

Myanmar’s Jungle Warriors - VICE 

This is a very tough, but very informative video from VICE. Using interviews and raw footage, it shows how PDF fighters are being trained, why they joined and the fluidity of the border with Thailand. Stunning, make sure to watch! 

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