A Thai judge makes a big stand

Hello friends!

Trapped on a plane and with wedding preparation last week so felt very tapped out from the world! Today is more of a catch-up than a look ahead so I’ve opened up to all subscribers.

I will be back later in the week with a South China Sea special. It’s been a bit overshadowed by some of the more major regional news this year and I think we’re overdue for a look-in. There have been some excellent explainers which give us great context and forecasting and I’m looking forward to bringing it all together!

Indonesia is notably missing this week. Keep your inbox-eyes peeled for a new parliament and protests special as well - there’s just been too much cracking analysis to fit it all in here!

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See you soon!Erin Cook

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The Mekong River Commission — comprised of reps from Laos, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam — waited seven weeks to announce the Lao government had begun a ‘preliminary procedure’ ahead of construction of a new dam near Luang Prabang. The Commission has denied trying to hide the construction, saying that while typically announcements are made well ahead, in this case, it has waited since the end of July to ensure all paperwork is in order for full transparency. 

It will meet again next week to plot out a six-month construction plan and promises that it will be fully open. 

The Commission was planned to meet again to plot out a six-month construction plan, but I haven’t seen anything to come of that yet. 

“Why agree to a third (dam) when the other two are entwined in controversy?” asked Stimson Centre’s Brian Eyler. Thousands of villagers will be displaced, reports Al Jazeera, and given the environmental destruction similar projects have had I think most are assuming a similar impact. 

African swine fever has reached Timor-Leste. Around 100 outbreaks have been reported in the areas surrounding Dili and the government is working closely with Australian counterparts to counter any spread. In 2015, Timor-Leste had about 44,000 pigs. Expect to hear a lot of this in Australia with fears that it could spread here shortly. I’m also going to keep an ear out on how Indonesia is affected since there’s no word yet but it’s now virtually surrounded by the virus. 

What to watch. With revelations of this new dam in Laos expect to see further analysis and follow-ups on the MRC decision. 

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Former Cambodia National Rescue Party cadre Dong Sovannarith was arrested last Tuesday with his wife claiming no warrant was presented and she’s in the dark over what the charges are. When Radio Free Asia contacted local police for further information they didn’t get too far either. ‘“I'm not the one who made the arrest, so you should ask that person,”  provincial Deputy Police Chief Heng Vuthy said, adding that he did not know the name of the officer.’ Two other provincial CNRP members Srean Sreang and Mao Vibol have been charged with “attempting to stage a coup” after vocally supporting the return of Sam Rainsy. And then this Friday past another three have been done on the same charge.

What to watch. These arrests will continue. I will be watching to see if Hun Sen’s longterm efforts to snuff out the spark of dissent has been successful (and who could blame a young Cambodian!) and the response of the world. European Union surely will have something to say.

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It feels like we’re heading towards another tense time for the Rohingya people. Repatriation efforts have spluttered for months, but a change in rhetoric from Bangladesh in recent weeks and now from India should see some development. India’s Narendra Modi issued a statement with Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina which would see greater efforts to facilitate repatriation (what that actually means ¯\_(ツ)_/¯) and increased humanitarian aid from India. Meanwhile, United Nations investigators say it is still unsafe for the hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees to return to Myanmar. 

In our other conflict watch, I thought this piece from the Irrawaddy is brilliantly handy. I’m not sure the Tatmadaw is too keen to pick up its suggestions but, still. The rundown of current conflicts and the various stages of peace talks is made for bookmarking. 

What to watch. Externally, the status of the Rohingya is always to be monitored but I am very interested in a couple of recent incidents of Rohingya people within Myanmar being rounded up by police after fleeing Rakhine State. 

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Honestly, friends. This is my biggest South China Sea flare-up since beginning this project and, despite reading all the books you’re meant to, feel a touch out of my depth. I’ve been dying for a story that does a bit of contextualising, a bit of ‘xyz makes this different from year 2xxx because of this’ but I don’t think it’s big enough just yet for an explainer from the mainstreams. Luckily this is exactly why I went paywall! I’ll get to the bottom of this, friends, so we’ll brush over it for now. 

What to watch. Keep an eye on your inbox later in the week. Let me ask some smarties some questions and get back to you.

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The air is choking in Bangkok, but Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha is asking for a bit of patience. Diesel cars are in the crosshairs. Is Future Forward’s Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit in the clear? Party cadres say the attorney general’s office is keen to drop the computer crimes case against the leader. Thanathorn and two others from the party were facing charges over spreading false information on Facebook. The bona fide babe is not in the clear just yet, prosecutors have to send its decision to the police chief who can take it up with the Attorney-General if he thinks it’s necessary. 

I really want to linger on this Yala judge story though. Khanakorn Pianchana is a senior judge in the Deep South city. On Friday afternoon towards the end of a hearing in which five men were acquitted of gun offences and murder charges, he pulled out a gun and shot himself in the chest. Already, that’s gnarly. But the publication of a 25-page document to Facebook suggests pressure from other judges to change the verdict. Thankfully, Khanakorn’s injuries are not life-threatening and he’s expected to pull through just fine after surgery over the weekend. 

The conversation this prompted is very interesting. I know I keep saying I gotta get back to Bangkok, but I really got to get back to Bangkok! It’s a very rare behind the curtain look at the Thai judiciary and is probably far more revealing than Khanakorn’s colleagues would like.

What to watch. The fall-out and conversation around this incident I hope will give us more insight into the judiciary. I am also very keen to learn more about what this says, if anything, about the fracturing of public institutions. 

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It’s fake news time! The law came in last week and threatens to further stifle freedom of speech in Singapore. As in all things Singapore, let’s see what Kirsten Han says. "But what worries me is that it would likely further entrench the culture of self-censorship, not just among journalists but among Singaporeans in general," she told NPR. We should be able to get a vibe of this in the coming months as we head towards the election. 

Well, this is grotty. Police will continue investigations into the now infamous SG Nasi Lemak Telegram group which was used to spread pornographic images of Singaporean women. Here’s a little more on Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wading into the US-China trade war. I think these types of analysis and op-eds overlook the fascinating role Singapore can and occasionally does in bridging China (even wider East Asia) with the West and fail to recognise that many of the conversations these countries are now having about China have long been a feature in Singapore. Someone write that pls. 

What to watch. I’m going to be keeping an eye on the fake news laws and what it means for these hideous blogger cases. 

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More economic stress is on the horizon for Malaysia according to import levels. August imports fell to the lowest point since 2009, with analysts warning that Malaysia is going to get whacked by global risks. Will Goldman Sachs have to give 1MDB-cash back to the government? The finance ministry says it isn’t currently isn’t pursuing any recovered funds, despite January comments suggesting the Attorney General would drop charges if they just gave back some of that dang money. 

What to watch. We’ve got yet another by-election on the horizon, this time in Tanjung Piai. The Johor seat has traditionally been MCA territory but with UMNO eyeing it off I expect we’ll see some more future of the Barisan Nasional coalition ‘spirit’ conversation. 

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I cannot get over, I will never get over what President Rodrigo Duterte looked like during a state visit to Russia. Russian netizens had a bit of a laugh with the way Duterte was dressed when meeting Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. What did the pair talk about? No one knows, the tie stuff was too funny. Is autoimmune disease myasthenia gravis why he’s been so ill and out of action? 

It’s been a bloody few days. Clashes between MILF and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, which has pledged allegiance to Islamic State after splintering from MILF, has left seven MILF dead. As Benar News’ reporting notes, some within the group feared that decommissioning thousands of fighters a few backs could leave the group vulnerable. 

What to watch. The vice president election fall-out continues this week with another hearing set for Tuesday. Leni Robredo’s people say no matter what she’s staying on, but it will get fiery again.