🇲🇾 A flood of election predictions

Hello friends!

We have a lot of new people joining this week so I just wanted to flag that this ENORMOUS regional wrap is something I’ve been trying lately to break into two for brevity’s sake. But, some weeks, like this hellish week of assessment and pre-travel organising, setting aside a morning to go loooong is the best option. 

The long-promised Indonesia-only update will be in your inboxes next week. 

And finally! I’m about to spend a month in Chiang Mai (come for the Splice conference, stay for the cutest co-working spaces you’ve ever seen) and Bangkok each, so if you’re in those areas and keen on a chat PLEASE let me know — I have a coffee fund for this exact purpose.

See you next week,Erin Cook

🇲🇾 I can’t get out, I’m sick

Convicted corruptor former prime minister Najib Razak is spending a lot of time in hospitals, rather than jail cells, with blood pressure issues, his legal team says. Hmm. Okayyy. 

What a handy story here from the Straits Times! When is an election likely to be held in Malaysia? A friend has put a punt on October post-budget, but I’m thinking late February based solely on vibes. In between the October and February dates is peak flooding season in the country and a general no-no for elections. This is typically for logistical reasons but also because it’s a massive mismanagement issue for whoever the government is at the time. Could this time be different, though? 

Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah is taking the lead on Asean’s effectively failed five-point consensus for the Myanmar crisis. He’s pushing for a shift come November: “Between now and the Asean summit in November Asean must seriously review if the five-point consensus is still relevant, and if it should be replaced with something better. By the time we meet in November, we must ask that hard question and we must have the answer during that time,” he said, as reported by Reuters. 

I’m still struggling too much learning all the various 1MDB cases, I don’t need to chuck in a businessman named Fat Leonard and the US navy on top of it all. 

🇹🇭 Prawit is getting very comfortable

Mark your calendars! The Constitutional Court will hand down its decision on suspended prime minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s fate on the 30th. Which is a day before I fly into Bangkok, serendipitously. Not much teasing on where they’re headed but I would be very shocked if the opposition wins out. I wonder what caretaker prime minister Prawit Wongsuwon is hoping for. The Thai Enquirer ran an opinion piece marking his one month tentatively in the hot seat and the consensus is he seems to be enjoying it. I need to quote this paragraph in full: 

Very intriguing.

Border talks are back! Nature is healing etc. 

I will be honest — I’ve spent much of the last three weeks googling cute cafes and co-working spaces and reading lists rather than following the news too closely. On that note, any and all recommendations, please! 

🇻🇳 You can’t sit with us (unless you free an environmental activist)

The State Bank of Vietnam has been forced to move its hand after the dong dropped to the lowest point against the USD since at least 1993. The refinance rate will go up to 5%  and the discount rate will increase to 3.5% Bloomberg reports the decision was made just hours after Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called on the central bank to consider increasing interest rates. “This is in line with the trend of monetary tightening taking place globally; the currency has been weakening and inflation is under pressure,” investment consultant Phung Trung Kien told Bloomberg.

If Vietnam wants to join the United Nations Human Right Council, it better free Nguy Thi Khanh. That’s the message to the Council from more than 50 Goldman environmental prize winners across the world. They’re urging the council to pressure Vietnam into releasing their Goldman-winning colleague from a prison sentence on spurious tax evasion charges. 

🇰🇭 Ending with a whimper

The United Nations-backed Khmer Rouge tribunal has wound down after 16 years and three judgements. Its final call was to reject the appeal of Khieu Samphan, the last surviving leader of the Khmer Rouge government, meaning his 2018 conviction of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity still stands, as reported by the AP. I’ve been struck by the almost celebratory ‘this is behind us now’ view from some. It reminded me a lot of the brilliant piece by Julia Wallace in the New York Times in 2017 which asked, what do justice and reconciliation look like in Cambodia?

I also thought this line from the Guardian’s report on the end of the tribunal from survivor Seang Seng: “I think it is very important for the world to know what happened in Cambodia in those days and I applaud people that worked very hard to bring Khieu Samphan to justice. However, his fate will not change anything for me.”

Elsewhere, there has been a glut of reporting on the hideous slavery scams throughout Cambodia. I’ve got my own piece in the works about this arguing that this is a regional issue that needs a regional response. In the meantime, local law enforcement is conducting raids of compounds but I’m not overly optimistic that this will be the end.

🇲🇲 Shoring up power

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has replaced its leader, Than Htay, with Khin Yi, widely seen as more sympathetic to the junta. The shuffle has been floated as temporary — Than Htay said he was stepping down over health issues — but a source told Nikkei Asia it will be formalised at the party conference next month. 

Han Lay, the Miss Grand International Myanmar 2020, was detained by authorities in Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport on Wednesday. Han Lay competed in a beauty contest event in Thailand in March last year, just weeks after the military coup, and voiced her opposition to media at the event. She tells the Irrawaddy that she had left Thailand to reset her visa, but was held over what immigration officials told her was an Interpol notice. 

Just this morning, the US pledged ​$170 million in aid to support Rohingya refugees in the ongoing humanitarian crisis. Crucially, this funding will also support Rohingya outside of Myanmar — including Bangladesh, which is increasingly annoyed with hosting the exiles. “With this new funding, our total assistance in response to the Rohingya Refugee Crisis has reached nearly $1.9 billion since August 2017, when over 740,000 Rohingya were forced to flee to safety in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said in a statement. 

🇸🇬 Staying put in the city

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong didn’t go over to New York for the UN General Assembly, but he did send a recorded video message which is bang on his usual hits. “This international order is imperfect, but it is by far our best bet. If we regress to a world where ‘might is right’, small states would find it impossible to survive and even big countries will not be better off,” he said. No surprises there. 

Law Minister K Shanmugam wants to legislate against ‘cancel culture.’ What exactly is the widely agreed definition of cancel culture and how would one violate such a law? Good questions, but don’t overthink it. “We should be encouraging people to be able to express their viewpoints on all sides as long as it’s not offensive and doesn’t descend to hate speech,” he told Bloomberg. Both religious Singaporeans and the LGBT community have reported feeling shut down in recent discussion around LGBT rights, for instance, he said. I would hazard a guess if you sat down and thought it through it may become quickly apparent who is being ‘cancelled’ here. 

I’m sorry if this seems down on Singapore this week. The news from there has been a bit nasty the last few weeks, with lots of reports on murders and sex crimes and the like. Will go out of my way to bring some nice stuff next week! 

🇵🇭 Philippines and the US, besties again

In music to the American’s ears, President Bongbong Marcos pledged his support to Washington during a visit to the US. “We are your partners, we are your allies, we are your friends. And in like fashion, we have always considered the United States our partner, our ally and our friend,” Marcos said in New York during a meeting with US President Joe Biden. 

The meeting was on the sidelines of Marcos’ first attendance at the United Nations. He used his first address to touch on climate change and reiterate the Philippines’ deep conviction on recognising UNCLOS around the world. Back home, the speech was possibly more notable for the hundreds of memes launched by the apparent boredom of the near-empty assembly hall. Worse still, his wife First Lady Liza Araneta-Marcos looks like she was asleep.   

The central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, played down concerns about a waning peso, noting global pressures that are affecting everyone. “The current movement of the peso is expected as it largely reflects the strengthening of the dollar given the monetary policy tightening cycle of the US Fed. Now, concerns over the Ukraine-Russia conflict and its protracted impact on global supply chains, global growth uncertainty, and elevated global inflation also continue to drive investors towards the US dollar as a safe haven asset,” Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila Jr. said, as reported by CNN Philippines. 

Here’s an unusual rare win for the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army. The Department of Justice moved to declare the political party and its rebel wing as ‘terrorists’ by the judges of the Manila Regional Trial Court were not interested. “Nothing is better attested by present realities than that terrorism does not flourish in a healthy, vibrant democracy. WHEREFORE, premises considered, the instant Petition is hereby DISMISSED.” Wow. Okay, then!