2024: The Shinawatra are back and Prabowo is in

Hello friends!

Happy New Year to all! I am really looking forward to moving on into 2025. This year was a big one for elections and very powerful figures, new and old, rising. 

This is a bit of a recap on the stories that I think shaped 2024, but it’s certainly not exhaustive. Malaysia got away from me so badly I’m planning six weeks there in the first half of 2025. I’ll be back in your inbox later in the week with a look at the year ahead. That’s where we’ll get into Myanmar.

See you then!
Erin Cook

The Shinawatra Moves Forward

What an August that was. Remember that! Four court cases, all of which had the power to change the trajectory of Thailand completely. A quick recap: Move Forward is dissolved, Srettha Thavisin is out of the prime minister's office, Thaksin Shinawatra stays out of trouble (for now) on 112 and the senate elections are all good. Okay. Move Forward rises again as the People’s Party and Srettha goes quietly into that good night. But what a win for the Shinawatra. 

Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is named prime minister by the Pheu Thai Party — and briefly subjected to a flurry of ‘young woman leader therefore a win for women’ type stories in clueless corners — and things chug along for a few months. Nothing too exciting, but her support numbers do start climbing. Now dad’s back a bit too much. Who is the real Prime Minister? And what does Thaksin want?

Thailand isn’t due an election until 2027, but electoral timelines have never stopped Thailand from high political drama. Thaksin, what are you up to?? 

🇸🇬 Goodnight Sweet Prince: Lee Hsien Loong Stands Down

Former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong’s quiet exit — of sorts, he’s still staying around as a Senior Minister for however long he likes — has been on the cards for a while. Talk of the Fourth Generation, or 4G, in the ruling People’s Action Party, has swirled for years with successors' names rising and falling with the fortunes. The pandemic messed around the timeline a little, but LHL’s announcement that he’d leave office in May this year didn’t really surprise anyone. 

Indeed, I think we can pinpoint the exact moment when he made this decision. After weeks of defending his government’s support for Taylor Swift, which made her run of shows a Southeast Asia exclusive, he headed down my way for the Asean-Australia summit. And if he thought that a bit of physical distance would help, he was sorely mistaken — the Associated Press caught the press conference here. I feel like you can see him think ‘I could’ve been a legendary mathematician instead.’ 

Anyway, wasn’t the Straits Times ready! Fair cop, 20 years at the top is a very big deal let alone the ‘end of the era’ vibes with the Lees done (for now). This piece shows Straits Times at its ST-best — a touch hagiographic, sure, but big picture and taking advantage of that excellent design team they have on staff. 

Successor Lawrence Wong has big shoes to fill and an election to win. We’ll check in with him at the end of the week. 

🇮🇩Third Time the Charm for Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto

For a certain type of nerd where you were on Feb. 14, 2024, when Prabowo Subianto won the Indonesian presidential election is one of those things to be remembered forever. I was at an impossibly cool South Jakarta craft beer bar with two friends, watching Najwa Shihab on a Mac. That’s about as out of touch with an average voter you can get while still being in the country. Maybe that’s why I still feel a bit puzzled about how it all happened. 

He lost twice to the massively popular Joko Widodo, better known eternally as Jokowi, and was named his defence minister after the second defeat. A bit of gentle reputation rehabilitation, a well-placed son and some not-so-gentle judiciary massaging and there we go. Prabowo’s the president. His policy plans were ambitious — his flagship free school lunch program is expected to cost around 1.9% of GDP and the roll-out is fascinating in its complications — and the bloody capital city move may be on the back burner to get it done. He needs to build his legacy, not Jokowi’s. 

Still, fears of a further turn towards authoritarianism under his helm, as well as the inevitable split between Prabowo and Jokowi, make for an unusually tense year ahead in Indonesia. 

🇵🇭 Disuniteam as Marcos-Duterte Alliance Collapses

Whatever happens in Indonesia it surely cannot be as dramatic as the split between President Bongbong Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte. The two mammoth political clans joined forces for the 2022 election and, whoa, did they win. One of my favourite quirks of the Filipino electoral system is that voters select their presidential and vice-presidential preferences separately — which means we’ve got Marcos winning on 58.77% and Duterte on 61.53%. That’s not a huge gap, by any means, but isn’t it interesting! 

Things started off poorly for Sara Duterte. She didn’t get the defence portfolio she was gunning for, instead ditched with education. Come July 2024, she’s out of that one, thanks, and Senator Sonny Angara picks up the slack. Now she’s focusing on the Office of the Vice President full-time which has been under sustained criticism for the confidential funds — funding allocated to offices that are exempt from regular checks — the office is burning through, with other lawmakers asking what exactly is all of this for?

And then things really get messy in November. I’ve hired someone to kill the president, his wife and the Speaker of the House if anything happens to me, Duterte tells the country. Oh, my days. There’s no coming back from that. This alliance is dead, buried and then dug back up to be killed again. Throughout all of this daddy Duterte, former president Rodrigo, is making his comeback and planning a run for his old gig as mayor of Davao City. Nevermind the investigations into the drug war — a long overdue dig into the recent past that had been initially played down by Marcos. Well, if no one is friends anymore, is it open season?  

Filipinos will head to the polls in May for midterms, while Duterte critics and democracy defenders are vying for impeachment. Not even sure if next year is a new one, or if this year even counts. Call it the world’s longest 2023. 

🇻🇳 Vietnam Gets the Bag

There are two Vietnam stories this year. On the one hand, a boon for ‘bamboo diplomacy’ — no friends, no enemies, just Vietnam getting it done. And did it ever. New strategic partnerships with Australia and France continue the trend of shacking up with middle powers, while Russian President Vladimir Putin swung by in June. In the end, that seemed way less juicy than it promised. 

It was, however, a year of shifting in the Politburo. General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong died in office in July and Vietnam plunged into 48 hours of mourning (the photos are fantastic). A power vacuum it was not: this is now the To Lam era. The former Minister for Public Security is now the General Secretary and the President of the country, shoring up his hold on power. Over at Fulcrum, Nguyen Khac Giang took a look at the Vietnam he inherited and the leader the country has found. 

With the burning furnace anti-corruption drive still bubbling away and To Lam needing no time to find his feet, Vietnam has a year of powering ahead.