🇲🇲 1,000 days on in Myanmar, are things changing?

Hello friends!

This is one of those hideous weeks we get every now and then where mostly, it’s fairly quiet — except for a few enormous stories. 

Today, we’ll catch up with the violent barangay elections in the Philippines as well as the shifting ground in Myanmar. Tomorrow, we’ll dig a bit more into Malaysia’s response to the crisis in Palestine and the tricky but important work Thailand is doing in repatriating nationals caught up in the chaos — including dozens of migrant workers still reportedly held by Hamas. 

Because I believe Myanmar being forced from the world news headlines by other conflicts in recent years is an enormous disservice to the people, I’ve kept today free for all readers. Thanks very much to premium subscribers who make that financially viable. If you’d like to join them please do so here:

And if you can’t swing it, please forward around to any friends/coworkers who may be interested. 

See you tomorrow,

Erin Cook

🇲🇲 Operation 1027 pushes back

October 29 marked 1,000 days since the military coup. A friend, who was based in Yangon for years, mentioned this to me on Thursday and I had that weird moment where that seemed both a really long time and much shorter than I’d thought. This is probably reflective of the inertia of the conflict where the updates we outsiders largely receive are ‘just’ continuously climbing death and imprisonment tolls. As of today, the AAPP lists 4,163 civilians killed and 25,367 arrested since February 1, 2021. 

“These statistics help us understand the enormity of the conflict in Burma, and the scope of the junta’s vicious campaign against the people. The figures don’t capture the unwavering determination and spirit of the Burmese people who, despite enduring severe repression, continue not only to survive, but to battle for freedom and dignity,” Kyaw Zeyar Win writes in a blog piece for the IRI. 

Hear, hear. 

The milestone has come amid a shift in rhetoric as the People’s Defence Forces and ethnic armed organisations push ever harder — so hard that the eggheads online are disputing how much longer the military can hold on for (the smart money seems on no imminent collapse, but definitely suffering.) 

Reporting from the Irrawaddy shows an offensive, dubbed Operation 1027 after the 27/10 date, launched by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) in Shan State and the Saigang region on Friday has been successful, with military-held bases collapsing under heavy fighting. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and Arakan Army (AA) on Tuesday claimed to have “seized the major junta Gangdau Yang outpost.”  

This piece, published Monday, looks at the larger and smaller scale offensives that show just how widespread the operation has become. It’s difficult for the Irrawaddy to independently confirm the death toll among junta soldiers. Still, it says at least 170 had been killed between Friday and the start of this week in the north and further into the centre of Myanmar, like Mandalay Region. 

Call it a military operation, the allied Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Arakan Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army said in a statement provided to media via Telegram. Between the three groups there are around 15,000 fighters, the AFP reported. 

They’ve specifically targeted junta outfits and the junta-aligned border force in the Kokang Special Administrative Zone, near the China border. “The groups said that they intended to crackdown on the cyber scam operations that are currently flourishing in the Kokang SAZ, an issue that ‘has plagued Myanmar, particularly along the China-Myanmar border,’” Sebastian Strangio wrote for the Diplomat on Monday. 

Which isn’t to say the junta is taking it easily. In Depayin Township, Sagaing, the military meted out a particularly grisly attack including the decapitation and evisceration of seven townspeople — including two resistance fighters. “This is not the first time they [junta troops] have butchered civilians. They left a message, calling themselves the Ogre Column,” a villager told the Irrawaddy.

The violence has effectively shut down the China-Myanmar border to trade, residents told Myanmar Now yesterday. “There are no more inbound and outbound goods—even if the goods did arrive we couldn’t do anything with them. We have no more products to export. Because of the battles, we have had to stockpile food,” a rice merchant told the outlet. He expects the situation to last at least a few weeks, especially after hearing a strategic bridge across the border had been destroyed in clashes. 

China is not happy. Chinese State Council member Wang Xiaohong met with junta home minister Yar Pyae in Naypyidaw Tuesday where they “discussed peace and tranquillity in border areas of the two countries,” according to state-owned Global New Light of Myanmar and quoted by the AFP.  Thousands of locals are reported to be displaced in the area, with some fleeing across into China. 

Western states aren’t thrilled either — but in a different direction. In a move seemingly timed to mark the 1000 days a swath of new sanctions have been introduced by the US, the UK and Canada (my own country depressingly off the list). 

“Burma’s military regime has repeatedly harmed civilians in air strikes, suppressed pro-democracy movements, destroyed homes and infrastructure, and displaced millions of people,” the US Treasury Department said Tuesday as it announced new sanctions targeting oil and gas and arms procurement. State-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise is in the crosshairs, with the US saying it is the largest source of income for the junta. From December 15, certain financial services in the US will be inaccessible by the MOGE in what Reuters calls the first move against a state-owned enterprise itself, rather than the leadership. 

Crucially, the sanction falls short of an outright ban, reports Voice of America. “The government-owned company was not added to the Specially Designated Nationals list, which bans its trade with Americans and freezes its American assets, effectively kicking it out of the American banking system,” the outlet reported.

Well done but let’s keep going, says UN Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews: “These actions signal to the people of Myanmar that they have not been forgotten, but there is much more that the international community can and must do,” he said as per the Associated Press. He called on UN member states to push harder. This was a little footnote to the wire story that I didn’t know, but worth explicitly staying: The European Union imposed sanctions on MOGE in February 2022. 

Nikkei Asia took a more business-minded look at the sanctions, of course. It noted that in the wake of the coup France’s TotalEnergies and Chevron as well as Malaysia’s Petronas pulled out of Myanmar, but Thailand’s state-owned PTT Exploration and Production and South Korea’s POSCO International stayed. With these new sanctions, they may be forced to pick up sticks. 

Still, MOGE may have been approaching trouble anyway, Nikkei reports: “Some of the four major gas fields in which MOGE is involved in operations are nearing depletion, and the company lacks technology and capital for new development. How big of an impact the sanctions will have is unclear, since the gas fields were already showing signs of decline.” 

Mike Haack had an op-ed in Frontier last week that takes a deeper look at the US’s struggling Burma Act. It’s a fascinating longer piece into lobbying efforts both in Myanmar and the US to get the Americans to swing a little harder but, ham-strung by the US’ domestic politics, has proved fruitless so far. Funding, writes Haack. Funding, funding, funding!

🇵🇭 The Philippines votes for local leaders

“Much of the dysfunction of (Philippines) democracy is revealed by” barangay elections, wrote Manuel Quezon III on Twitter this Tuesday. The barangay is the Philippines’ smallest administrative level, encompassing local neighbourhoods and akin to councils in Australian states (if that’s a touchstone for you). To be explicitly clear, the results are best left to the Filipino Substacks who are far more across this than me — today we’ll chat about the surrounding issues. 

The small size shouldn’t undermine the importance and centrality of elections. Filipino voters turned out in droves on Sunday to elect 42,000 barangay captains across the country who will oversee administration and settle disputes among locals. And, as we sadly know far too well, where there are elections in the Philippines there is immense violence.

The Commission on Elections (Comelec) confirmed that 19 people had been killed during clashes over the election period. Specific details about all these incidents remain scant, but ABS-CBN reports two were killed in gunfire in Maguindanao del Norte province. Police told the outlet that it occurred during a confrontation between rival candidates. 

“In another incident in Mindanao, a woman was killed when a gunfight broke out after a van carrying a village captain and her supporters was stopped on a road by people backing her rival in Lanao del Norte province, the army said,” reported ABS-CBN. The husband of a Lanao del Sur province captain was also shot and killed in a confrontation. 

In Basilan, three people were killed in separate events across the province, the Inquirer reports. One was shot and killed inside the elementary school voting booth, which feels particularly nasty. 

Comelec spokesperson John Rex Laudiangco said that all things considered, the number of killed is fairly low — especially compared to the 2018 vote. Still, it’s a terrible feature of elections that must be kicked: “[W]e really have to improve this situation. We have to … normalise elections to the people that it must not result in any form of violence,” he said, as per the above ABS-CBN piece. 

Vote-buying remains a sincere concern in elections at every level. “Keep the money, but vote from your conscience,” is how many voters see it, according to this great piece from Cherry Salazar for the Philippine Centre of Investigative Journalism. Ah, a familiar refrain from all over! 

Running some preliminary numbers and linking some barangays to the country’s powerful political clans (one day I’ll finish you, McCoy’s opus!) Salazar reiterates a long-running but vital flaw — with barangay representatives only paid a small honoria there is simply no way for candidates to recoup ‘costs’ in a way approaching ethical (but not quite getting there, to be sure). 

Comelec does appear to be taking it quite seriously. Of 183 complaints received earlier this week, 27 have been accepted with another 100 under review. The election body plans to prosecute. Comelec is also investigating seven reports of candidates across the country seeking to delay the declaration of results. “They are interfering … they’re saying don’t proclaim yet. So we ordered our regional director that the [Barangay Board of Canvassers] should proclaim today at all costs. We don’t care about whoever is calling the shots or giving pressure because the mayor might get angry,” Comelec Chairman George Garcia told Philstar. 

And finally, an intriguing one here from the Inquirer on three candidates who ran from prison. All three are set to win in the barangay or SK (too deep for me) votes. “We respect the right of our [Persons Deprived of Liberty]s not only to cast their votes but also to run for and even be elected for office,” Interior Secretary Benhur Abalos said, as per the Inquirer. Interestingly, this was the first vote in which incarcerated voters could participate after a legal challenge last year.