🇲🇲 Myanmar Part 1: The Neighbourhood looks in

Hello friends!

A two-parter on Myanmar this week since so much has happened since we last chatted.

Today, Myanmar from the outside looking in and Friday we’ll have Myanmar from the inside.

I’m very proud to be able to bring these Myanmar updates free to so many readers thanks to the support of the premium subscribers. If you’d like to join us, please do so here:

Erin Cook

Collapse? No, call it fragmentation

A keyword in recent weeks: fragmentation. And we better get used to it, twin op-eds argue. (Shout out to Kyaw Hsan Hlaing who led the charge in the Diplomat all the way back in December) 

Richard Horsey is always good, but this one he’s knocked up for Foreign Affairs is outstanding. ‘Myanmar is undergoing fragmentation: large parts of the country, including most of Myanmar’s international borders, are now under the dominion of various ethnic armed groups. These groups are expanding control of their ethnic homelands and building autonomous statelets,’ he writes. We shouldn’t expect to see the ‘catastrophic collapse’ history has shown us elsewhere, like in Yugoslavia in the 90s. Rather, it’s put a pin in the federation dream, with localised leaders unlikely to give up hard-fought control. 

Still, it’s not like Myanmar was on the way. ‘It has been in a situation of partial collapse since it gained independence in 1948. Large areas of the uplands, which are home to ethnic minority groups, have never been under the control of any central government and have long managed disputes among themselves,’ Horsey notes. And maybe the emergence of ‘quasi-independent statelets’ is the ‘least bad outcome for Myanmar in the medium term.’ 

I’m mindful of quoting too much from this piece — and it’s all very quotable — so I would highly recommend clicking through. But the key takeaway is this: the world needs to understand that we are not, and will not, be dealing with a nation-state for some time yet. Instead, dealing directly with civil society groups. ‘An international system built on the primacy of relationships between nation-states is too restrictive a framework for dealing with Myanmar today.’

It’s a view echoed by Morten B. Pedersen in his report for the Lowy Institute last month. ‘The coup has been a failure,’ he writes in the introduction. ‘However, the revolution has not yet succeeded either.’ He, too, rejects that ‘Balkanisation’ is an inevitability, noting that neighbouring countries are unlikely to recognise any quasi-states that do emerge, but ‘it is increasingly uncertain whether Myanmar can come together as anything resembling a functional union, even a federated one.’

In a shorter op-ed for Nikkei Asia, Pedersen explores this further. The gamut of Myanmar’s resistance groups aren’t sitting around waiting for a workable solution and ‘international donors should not wait either.’ It’s not quite as obvious as arming resistance groups, but strengthening local governance in areas that have been liberated could be key. ‘In broad terms, the various resistance groups need assistance with building political and administrative institutions, delivering social services and developing a common vision for a future federal union,’ he writes.

Again, I’m wary of quoting too liberally and snagging clicks away from Nikkei, but the conclusion is worth it: ‘Investing in parallel state-building would add a more constructive and forward-looking element to Western policy on Myanmar, one guaranteed to pay dividends whatever the trajectory of the civil war and subsequent efforts to build a new and better country. It would help the West remain relevant to Myanmar's future development in a way that no amount of outrage or sanctions is ever going to.’

It’s something ANU’s Nicola Williams appears to have in mind in this piece for East Asia Forum musing on how Julie Bishop, Australia’s former foreign minister and the United Nations’ new special envoy, ought to play it. ‘Bishop should avoid advocating for high-level track-one negotiations to solve Myanmar’s civil war,’ Williams prescribes. What’s the point when there’s no space between the junta and the resistance? Instead, engage those on the regional level where the democracy movement is entwined with the resistance. Shan State could be the place to start. 

Checking in on the neighbourhood

🇨🇳 China casts a wary eye

China remains the most ‘consequential external party,’ writes Yun Sen of the Stimson Centre for Nikkei Asia. Calls from other parties for Beijing to support the National Unity Government in exile or the People’s Defence forces have been ignored since February 2021. And while Beijing hasn’t formally recognised the junta, they’re not exactly holding back the invites and handshakes either. 

So what’s it all about? ‘Beijing's seemingly conflicting behaviour is a direct manifestation of its varied interests and priorities,’ Yun Sen writes. The NUG as the true government as mandated by the people isn’t as clear-cut for China as it is for supporters. ‘What Beijing objects to is a foreign-supported NUG fighting a revolution against the military government. For Beijing, this would amount to Western intervention.’ A must-read here!  

One move from Beijing has had a tremendous impact, however. Myanmar’s jade trade has always alarmed for its labour and human rights abuses and the environmental degradation of the industry. Now, an upstream crackdown by authorities in China has put a hold on jade trade along the border. 

“Chinese authorities are investigating companies and merchants and making arrests. This is hitting the jade market in Myanmar,” a Mandalay-based trader told the Irrawaddy. The outlet cited data from transparency NGO Global Witness that showed Myanmar jade trade was worth around US$31 billion in 2014. China has long been the biggest buyer. 

🇹🇭 Where borders and regulations meet

Something’s afoot in Thailand. Online unsubstantiated reports in recent days have shown police raids on homes and offices of Myanmar nationals in Mae Sot, along the border. Flagging that for the days ahead! 

Myanmar nationals who have bought real estate across the border or opened bank accounts are subject to a new crackdown by junta authorities aiming to stem the financial tide out of the country. The Nikkei Asia has a fantastic report here on the economic push factors — beyond the political — forcing Myanmar money abroad. “There is no such thing as being safe even when you are abiding by their rules and laws. Additionally, the banks are basically zombies now … If you at least own a property overseas, it is a safer bet,” Ma Sandar, a Myanmar national who has lived in Thailand for the last two years, told Nikkei Asia. Fair cop. 

Meanwhile, the Myanmar junta has ended passport conversions — that is, switching from a passport allowing travel to a passport allowing working abroad — in an effort to keep conscription-aged residents at home. A passport broker told Radio Free Asia that they suspect the military regime wised up to nationals working abroad on the tourism passport and have moved to tighten the rules. 

For Thailand, this could mean a labour shortage in the near future. The Department of Education in Thailand wants reforms to immigration rules that would allow migrant workers ‘to stay and extend work permits for those set to expire,’ RFA reports. This is big news for Myanmar, but would also cover workers from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. 

Asean preps for another round of talks

Asean? Asean? Foreign ministers from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Laos will meet with Alounkeo Kittikhoun, the Lao special envoy on Myanmar, next month in Vientiane. The meeting will take place a day ahead of the ministerial meeting and will focus on what, exactly, Myanmar can do with this Five Point Consensus. 

I don’t know what to expect with Indonesia, whether Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi’s last days at the helm mean she’ll come in ready to go or if the government is counting down the clock before a change of hands. Malaysia is ready to go hard, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said. Speaking at the 37th Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur last week, Anwar said the body needs to get its juice back with several of the mechanisms available seem to simply “plod along by fact of existence,” as reported by Channel News Asia. 

“In these times of great uncertainty, it is imperative to redouble our efforts towards further strengthening ASEAN, to be the key platform in managing regional affairs. We need to move from mere rhetoric to concrete action and focus on seeking ways to deliver on its aspirations,” he said. This is all music to my ears, but I’ve been burnt before with rhetoric about needing to move beyond rhetoric. Let’s see what Putrajaya brings to Vientiane!